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前三季度貨運增速創5年來新高 經濟向好跡象明顯 貨運量 外貿 高 [复制链接]

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前三季度貨運增速 創5年來新高 經濟向好跡象明顯
  本報記者 定軍 北京報道
  “今年前三季度交通運輸主要指標增速創近幾年來新高。”10月26日,交通部綜合規劃司副巡視員毛健在分析前三季度交通行業發展形勢時說,運輸結搆繼續優化,企業傚益有所改善,行業發展新動能不斷壯大,交通運輸經濟運行總體呈現“穩中有進、持續向好”的態勢,為全面完成年度各項任務目標奠定了堅實基礎。
  當日公布的數据顯示,前三季度,中國全社會完成貨運量343.3億噸,同比增長10.5%,為2013年以來新高。其中,第三季度增長11.4%,較上半年加快1.4個百分點。
  貨運量第三季度高於上半年,高雄搬家公司,這可能與目前大宗商品價格回升快,企業預期經濟向好,加快囤貨有關。中國物流信息中心副總經濟師陳中濤指出,目前貨運形勢良好,與企業對目前的經濟預期看好有關。
  全社會貨運量兩位數增長
  2013年到2016年全年,全社會貨運量累計增速一直是個位數(1-2月合並計算)。到了今年,全社會貨運量突然加速,且開始出現兩位數增速。
  2017年1-6月全社會貨運量增速為10%,7、8、9月的全社會貨運量增速分別是10.3%、10.4%、10.5%,表現出了加快的勢頭。
  鐵路表現很突出。2014年1月到2016年全年,全國鐵路貨運量累計增速一直是負增長,2017年全國鐵路貨運量開始出現兩位數增長。今年1-2月鐵路貨運量是14.5%,此後一直在15%左右,前三季度增速為14.6%。
  毛健指出,今年前三季度貨運量比上半年加快,鐵路和公路都表現出色。
  作為經濟晴雨表,高速公路反應明顯。截至目前,中國國家高速公路里程超過13萬公里,高速公路貨運量佔全國公路貨運量的比重大概為40%。
  “今年5月,交通運輸部正式推出了高速公路運輸相關的指標,從前三季度運行情況看,高速公路貨運量同比增長15.5%。這一增速高於鐵路貨運量增速,也高於全社會貨運量增速。”毛健在分析前三季度貨運加快的原因時說。
  今年前三季度鐵路貨運量保持快速增長,完成貨運量27.6億噸,實現兩位數增長,同比增長14.6%,增速創“十二五”以來新高,佔全社會貨運量比重為8.0%,同比提高0.3個百分點。
  公路貨運量增速逐季加快,完成貨運量266.6億噸,同比增長10.9%,其中一、二、三季度分別增長8.9%、10.6%和12.5%。快遞業務持續高速增長,完成業務量273.9億件,同比增長近30%。
  中國投資協會副會長劉慧勇指出,目前貨運量增速加快,可能與基礎設施投資加大有關,因為隨著鐵路、公路等加快建設,基礎設施改善帶動了貨運量的提升。特別是在邊遠地區,公路基礎設施改善後,有利於物流業發展。
  貨運量反映經濟向好
  全社會貨運量的大幅向好,是經濟向好的跡象。
  此前,機搆將鐵路貨運作為重要指標,以此推算出目前經濟持續向好的情況。
  第三季度經濟增速為6.8%,比一季度和上半年的6.9%略低,但是全社會貨運量增速反而加快,反映出未來經濟向好的預期在增強。
  數据顯示,目前貨運轉好,與內外需均轉好有關。
  前三季度,全國規模以上港口完成貨物吞吐量94.7億噸,同比增長7.6%,為近四年來新高,各季度增速均保持在7%以上的較快水平。其中內貿高於外貿,內貿吞吐量增速為8.0%,外貿吞吐量增速為6.9%。
  從重點貨類看,煤油礦箱等貨類均實現較快增長,其中集裝箱吞吐量完成1.77億標箱,同比增長9.1%。
  鐵路的情況也印証了這一點。中國鐵路總公司的數据顯示,今年前9個月,國家鐵路貨物發送量累計完成218186萬噸,同比增長13.9%。各鐵路局均有不同程度增長,其中烏魯木齊局增幅最大,達48.6%。
  單看9月,鐵路全路貨運增收勢頭依然強勁,貨物發送量達24626萬噸,同比增長8.3%。全路分界口日均交接貨車4062列20.5萬輛,同比增加231列1.87萬輛,同時創下了4400列22.32萬輛的單日交接歷史新高。
  各鐵路局提前啟動備冬儲煤運輸,煤炭日均裝車同比增加6352車、增長12%。全路集裝箱和商品汽車日均裝車均達歷史最高水平。
  交通銀行金融研究中心高級分析師劉學智指出,今年的貿易狀況明顯好於過去兩年,國際市場外需回暖帶動出口增長,中國內需也有改善,企業盈利提升。在國內生產提速時,也會帶動進口增長。
  劉學智認為,從長期來看,外貿轉好仍然存在諸多不確定因素。外需回暖勢頭明年能否延續存不確定性,西方發達國家貿易保護主義抬頭,全球需求改善可能有限。
  目前,外需改善仍只具有恢復性。鐵路貨運加快,但是仍不如前幾年。
  今年1-9月,國家統計局公布的鐵路貨運量是275505萬噸,只相當於2010年1-9月的水平,低於6年前2011年1-9月的293727萬噸的水平。
  中國物流信息中心副總經濟師陳中濤指出,經濟增速略放慢,貨運反而加快,有多重原因。調研顯示,企業對於目前的經濟預期良好,特別是需求旺盛,出口和進口的需求都很大,該良好勢頭保持到明年上半年沒問題。
  目前,貨運量增速提升時,貨運周轉量也在提升,這與外貿恢復性增長有關。另外,鐵路加快市場化改革,以及全國鐵路貨運能力大幅提高也有關係。
  “在一些大宗商品價格上升時,一些企業擔心價格上升有囤貨的需求,這也會帶動物流增長。”陳中濤說。
  (編輯:李博,如有意見或建議請聯係:dingjun@21jingji.com,libo@21jingji.com)

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